Weather Games Or Science

PREDICTING OPENING DAY

The return of cold weather sparks excitement for the opening of ski resorts across the country. Unfortunately, it is hard for anyone to be sure about the exact opening date because of Mother Nature.

Trying to predict a ski area’s opening day is the same as trying to predict the weather. The two are so closely tied that only Mother Nature really knows. Ski area operators and guests never know what to expect of an upcoming season. However, there is always speculation and some say there’s even some science behind it.

The most reliable long-term forecasts are for January to March, when weather trends follow historical patterns. Early winter and early spring with quickly changing weather are the most unpredictable periods of the year. Typically speaking, the longer the forecast window extends, the less reliable it is. Forecasts longer than 10 days require looking at long-term trends and historical data and even five or seven day forecasts are constantly changing.

With that said, there are several long-range weather forecasts trying to play the speculation game on what the U.S. ski industry can expect each winter. The Farmer’s Almanac has an 80% accuracy and is only about $4.99. It has been published annually since 1792 and uses a "secret formula” enhanced by the most modern scientific calculations based on solar activity.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Analysis Center issues weather trends based on sea surface temperature patterns, upper atmospheric winds, and historical weather patterns. It has left the business of specific long term predictions, keeping a 14 day lid on its forecasts, and instead issues monthly and seasonal outlooks.

At Mad River Mountain, we rely less on the whims of natural snowfall and instead look to the most advanced technology of snowmaking, and a bit of optimism. The machines will not work if the temperatures and weather don’t cooperate. Once the temperatures are consistently below freezing for both the daily temperature highs and lows, the Team Blizzard snowmakers will work 24 hours a day in around-the-clock shifts making enough snow to open Mad River’s 23 runs.

The Resort operates a 24 hour "Snow Hotline" at 800-231-SNOW and also a daily snow report on our website at www.skiMadRiver.com to keep track of the opening day predictions as well as snow conditions during the season. Live images of the slopes, can also be seen on the website during season. The resort is located off Route 33 in Bellefontaine, OH.